Volume 23, Issue 91 (2-2024)
refahj 2024, 23(91): 181-218 |
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Abbasi A, Nasiri Aghdam A. (2024). Evaluating the Impacts of Retirement Age Reform on Financial Status of the Iranian Social Security Organization Using a Dynamic Microsimulation Model. refahj. 23(91), : 5 doi:10.32598/refahj.23.91.3940.2
URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-4190-en.html
URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-4190-en.html
Abstract: (1046 Views)
Introduction: The Social Security Organization, as the largest pension fund in Iran, has unfavorable financial and demographic situation. Many researchers and policymakers have proposed increasing the retirement age as a solution to solve this problem, which is evaluated in the present study.
Method: The method used in this study is the microsimulation model, in which a sample of 1 percent of the contributors and pensioners of the Social Security Fund is selected and the effect of increasing the official retirement age in a 100-year period (from 2019 to 2118) is investigated.
Findings: The results show that if the retirement age is increased by 5 years at the beginning of the simulation period, the contribution rate required to equalize the expenditures and cash incomes of the fund in 2043 will be 56% (instead of 63% in the case of no reform) and in 2118, it will reach 118% (instead of 125%).
Discussion: The lack of significant effect of increasing the retirement age on the fund's financial balance can be due to the high population of people close to retirement, the absence of a minimum retirement age for hard and arduous jobs, and the 41% share of expenses independent of retirement age. In this way, in addition to plan for increasing the retirement age, it is necessary to take other measures such as reforming the rules of retirement in hard and arduous jobs and increasing the number contributors by encouraging voluntary contribution, reducing contribution evasion and increasing the working population.
Method: The method used in this study is the microsimulation model, in which a sample of 1 percent of the contributors and pensioners of the Social Security Fund is selected and the effect of increasing the official retirement age in a 100-year period (from 2019 to 2118) is investigated.
Findings: The results show that if the retirement age is increased by 5 years at the beginning of the simulation period, the contribution rate required to equalize the expenditures and cash incomes of the fund in 2043 will be 56% (instead of 63% in the case of no reform) and in 2118, it will reach 118% (instead of 125%).
Discussion: The lack of significant effect of increasing the retirement age on the fund's financial balance can be due to the high population of people close to retirement, the absence of a minimum retirement age for hard and arduous jobs, and the 41% share of expenses independent of retirement age. In this way, in addition to plan for increasing the retirement age, it is necessary to take other measures such as reforming the rules of retirement in hard and arduous jobs and increasing the number contributors by encouraging voluntary contribution, reducing contribution evasion and increasing the working population.
Article number: 5
Type of Study: orginal |
Received: 2023/03/25 | Accepted: 2023/09/27 | Published: 2024/02/14
Received: 2023/03/25 | Accepted: 2023/09/27 | Published: 2024/02/14
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Social Welfare Quarterly
Social Welfare Quarterly, Social Welfare Research Department, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation, Daneshjoo Blvd, Evin, Tehran, Iran, 19857-13834
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Website: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir
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