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rajabpour H, momeni F, nasiri aghdam A. (2021). Measuring Inclusive Development in Iran (1981-2016). refahj. 20(79), 9-54.
URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-3566-en.html

Introduction: The economics of development over the past few decades, along with efforts to achieve development, have also seen the expansion of its conceptual dimensions. In this context, the most important evolution may be to extend the concept of development from merely economic growth to a structural evolution, while improving both the income and non-income dimensions of welfare, is sustainable and equitable. It is this profound understanding of the importance of justice and equality in the context of developmental changes that has now led to the introduction of the concept of 'inclusive development' and the attention to the importance of inclusion in the development process.
The inclusive development index is sensitive not only to improving the mean of multidimensional development achievements but also to the distribution of development benefits across different individuals, groups, and social dimensions, and efforts to assess the impact of development processes across different sectors of society.
Method: In this study, the composite index approach was used to measure the state of inclusive development. To build this composite index, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008) method has been used as a guide to construct composite indicators.
In this study, five dimensions of African Development Bank (2016) were used to cover the dimensions of inclusive development. Also, these five dimensions are divided into ten components, namely improving economic welfare (including three components of economic growth, employment, and infrastructure), distributing economic welfare (including two components of poverty alleviation and reducing inequality), improvements in social welfare (including education, health and social cohesion), intergenerational welfare (including environmental protection), and political welfare (including the ability of citizens to voice and participate in government policy and decision-making).
The present study has complemented the work of the African Development Bank (2016) with the following innovations:
 1. Extending the scope of research time;
 2. Changing index dimensions and intervention variables related to gender, youth and spatial distribution across all research components and dimensions;
 3. Using Minimal-max approach to data normalization; and
 4. Focusing on outcomes rather than processes.
     Global databases, Statistical Center databases, and central bank data were used to analyze the components of the research. Summarizing different data, a total of 116 variables were collected for the period. By eliminating variables with large numbers of missing data and eliminating variables with similar effects, twenty-four variables were finally obtained. In the calculations, these variables have been used to combine these variables with equal weight and arithmetic distribution.
 
Dimensions, components and variables of the research

Variable	Component	Dimension
Domestic Income Growth (Fixed Dollar 2010)	Growth	Economic (Opportunity)
Per Capita Income Growth (Annual Percentage)
Total Unemployment (Population 10 Years And Over)	Employment
Participation Rate
Accident Rate Of Work To Major Insureds (Per 100 People)
Per People Country Road	Infrastructure And Access To It
Distribution (Coefficient Of Variation) Of Roads In The Country
Inflation Index	Poverty	Economic (Opportunity Distribution)
Ratio Of Non-Food Costs (Except Health And Rent) To Food (Urban Areas)
Dependency Burden
Gini Coefficient (Central Bank)	Income Inequality
10 % Share Of The Poorest To The Poorest 10% (Central Bank)
Distribution (Coefficient Of Variation) Per Capita Of Cinemas
Per Capita Bed In The Country	Health	Social
Coefficient Of Variation (Dispersion) Of Gp In Provinces
Student To Teachers Rates, Elementary	Education
Student To Teacher Rate, Secondary
Of Murder (Per Capita Country – Per 100,000 Population)	Social Solidarity
Suicide (Per Capita – Per 100,000 People)
Co2 Emissions	Protection Of The Environment	Environment
Rangeland And Forest Fire Area (To All Areas Under The Supervision Of The Environment Agency)
The Share Of Seats Occupied By Women In Parliament	Governance	Political
Freedom House Index
Political Situation

  
 
 
 
 
 
 
The Status of Inclusive Development Index in Iran (1981-2016)
 
 
Findings: The results show that the situation of inclusive development has improved during the period of 1981-2016. However, from inclusiveness perspective, the trend of index growth over the past decade has been hit with severe shocks and has not yet returned to its previous position. Also, only slightly more than half of the total achievements at the end of the period still existed, meaning that the development achievements of the study period are reversible, and these achievements cannot be regarded as sustained and continually improving all segments of society's developmental benefits.
Some of the annual index fluctuations are due to impermanent and transient changes. In order to avoid the influence of these fluctuations in the results, the present study uses four-year cuts. It makes it possible to analyze trends in terms of political economy developments.
 
The status of inclusive development sub-indicators
 
The diagram above shows the status of the dimensions of inclusive development over four years (executive branch changes). The economic situation of Iran has been on the upswing in terms of improving economic opportunity creation. From the perspective of social variables, the index trend has not improved since the beginning of the period. Another important finding of the study is the identification of risky trends in sustainable development degradation. The process of environmental protection has been downward throughout the period. Finally, the overall trend in governance does not indicate an overall improvement in performance. Finally, it is necessary to measure the robustness of the results to the researcher's choices in the research process.
 
Different combinations of weighting and integration of variables

Equality-oriented scenario	Growth-oriented Scenario	the current scenario	Dimension
0.2	0.5	0.3	Creating economic opportunities (growth, employment, infrastructure)
0.2	0.2	0.2	The distribution of economic benefits (poverty alleviation, inequality reduction)
0.2	0.2	0.3	Improving social welfare (health, education, social cohesion)
0.2	0.05	0.1	Stability
0.2	0.05	0.1	governance

As shown in the table, the growth-oriented scenario gives more weight to growth (growth along with employment) than other variables and places a low importance on sustainability and governance dimensions, while equality-oriented scenarios emphasize the same across sectors. .
 
The trend of inclusive development index changes with component weights

2013-2016	2009-2012	2005-2008	2001-2004	1997-2000	1993-1996	1989- 1992	1985-1988	1981-1984
10%	10%	9%	5%	6%	12%	0%	-7%	-8%	Growth-oriented Scenario
-7%	-3%	-2%	3%	5%	1%	4%	2%	2%	Equality-oriented scenario

 
Growth-oriented scenario increases index estimation for recent periods. However, in the equality-oriented scenario, the index will be reduced by 7%. This result indicates that:
- First, the emphasis on growth will overestimate the overall development index.
- Secondly, the impact of weighting on results in recent times has increased more than in the past, as the emphasis on growth or other factors will make up to 20% of the difference in results. Therefore, conclusions in the area of ​​comprehensive development index should be cautious.
Discussion: The results of this study show that the situation of inclusive development in Iran has improved during the study period (1981-2016). However, the development achievements of this period have not been sustainable and the process of improving overall development in Iran has been halted for the past decade. As research shows, it can be concluded that trends in the distribution of economic benefits (poverty alleviation and inequality reduction), social welfare (health, education, and social cohesion) and sustainability (environmental protection) have declined steadily over the past decade. Accordingly, the trends show a serious destruction of the environment and an increase in social problems. That is, economic growth has come at the expense of future generations’ diminishing rights (diminishing intergenerational equality) and weakening social cohesion (diminishing social equality), which warns of the consequences of continuing this trend.
Ethical considerations
Funds
This article is part of Dr. Hossein Rajabpour's dissertation entitled "Measuring Inclusive Development in Iran and the Government's Impact on It (1981-2016)" in the Department of Planning and economic development at the Faculty of Economics of Allameh Tabatab’ii University under the guidance of Dr. Farshad Momeni, Dr. Ali Nasiri Aghdam and Dr. Alireza Alavitabar.
Contribution of authors
All authors have contributed to the design, execution, and writing of all sections of this article.
Conflict of interest
According to the authors, there is no conflict of interest in this article.
Adherence to the principles of research ethics
In this article, all rights relating to references are cited and resources are carefully listed.