Volume 23, Issue 91 (2-2024)
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hasanpour A, emami K, ezzati M. (2024). The Impact of Social Security Resources and Expenditure on Economic Growth and Employment in Iran. refahj. 23(91), : 3 doi:10.32598/refahj.23.91.4351.1
URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-4207-en.html
URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-4207-en.html
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Introduction: The importance and impact of social security on economic variables is one of the topics studied in recent years. The emergence of economic crises has caused social security to become one of the main topics of discussion among policymakers and academics. The impact of social security on economic variables, especially economic growth, is the subject of extensive literature with various findings in the academic field, which is disputed in the political field. The different impact of social security on the economy and the lack of a comprehensive study in this field, which makes the necessity of conducting this research clear because most of the studies that have been conducted only consider the impact of social security on economic growth from the perspective of spending. Therefore, it is necessary and important to conduct a comprehensive study that can examine both the impact of resources and expenditures on important economic variables. Most of these studies have examined the impact of social security expenses on economic variables. While social security is made up of two parts, resources and expenses, the review and comparison of the effectiveness of both parts should be considered. Considering the different effects of social security resources and expenditures, examining the role of both sectors and comparing them doubles the importance of the issue. Therefore, considering these cases, the aim of the present study is to investigate and compare the impact of the impulse of social security resources and expenditures on the variables of economic growth and employment in Iran during the period of 1367 to 1399.
Method: This study was conducted based on theoretical foundations and existing literature, as well as using econometric modeling. The econometric model used in this study is structural VAR (SVAR). In VAR models, the values of a variable are fitted to the values with its own interval. VAR models include two or more variables. The structural form of VAR or SVAR is similar to simultaneous equations in which, in addition to past values, current values of variables are also entered in each of the equations. Therefore, in this study, the impact of social security resources and expenses on economic growth and employment has been investigated using the structural vector autocorrelation (SVAR) model. In order to estimate the parameters of the structural form and to identify the vector-structural autocorrelation model, the AB model (Sons and Shin decomposition) has been used.
Findings: With an impulse to insurance resources, the economic growth initially decreases to 0.011 and continues to increase. The increase in insurance resources, which is the result of the increase in insurance premiums, causes a decrease in economic growth and after three years, it reaches the initial state. After three years, the effectiveness of insurance resources will have a positive effect on economic growth. The reaction of economic growth to the impulse of unemployment insurance resources is an increase of 0.015 percent in the beginning, which decreases to 0.003 in the second year and gradually decreases. The comparison of these two impulses on the economic growth shows that the effect of the impulse of unemployment insurance resources is greater and more durable than the insurance resources. Economic growth initially increases by 0.011 in response to the impulse of insurance expenses, and with the passage of time, it will decrease to -0.007 in the second period. In the continuation of the increasing process, this impulse starts and reaches its initial state after six periods. The impulse of unemployment insurance costs also causes an initial increase in economic growth to the extent of 0.005. In the continuation of this process, it decreases and after three periods, it reaches its initial state. In response to insurance resources, employment initially decreases by 0.017 percent, and in the continuation of this increasing reaction, it reaches 0.001 after four periods. From the fourth period onwards, the decreasing trend begins and after ten periods it reaches -0.001. This reaction shows that the increase in social security insurance resources causes a decrease in employment. The response of employment to unemployment insurance resources is also a decrease of 0.002 at the beginning, the downward trend of this variable continues and reaches -0.005 in the second period. In the continuation of the employment in response to unemployment insurance resources, it has an increasing trend and reaches 0.001 in the fourth period. The comparison of the momentum of both sources shows that the initial effect of both impulses is decreasing, but the initial effect of insurance sources is more. The passage of time decreases and after ten periods it reaches its initial state. This reaction shows that the increase in insurance expenses of the social security organization causes an increase in employment. In response to unemployment insurance costs, employment shows an initial decrease of 0.005, which quickly returns to its initial state in the second period. The comparison of the impact of two impulses shows that the response of employment to insurance costs is increasing and to unemployment insurance costs is decreasing. Also, the initial effect and durability of the impulse of insurance expenses is more than unemployment insurance expenses.
Discussion: With an impulse to insurance resources, economic growth decreased at first, while the reaction of economic growth to the impulse of unemployment insurance resources was an increase. The comparison of these two impulses on economic growth showed that the impact of the impulse of unemployment insurance resources is greater. Economic growth increased in response to the impulse of insurance costs and unemployment insurance costs. The comparison of these two impulses showed that the effectiveness of insurance costs is greater than unemployment insurance costs. In response to the insurance resources, employment decreased at first, but continued to increase. The reaction of employment to unemployment insurance sources is also a reduction at first. The comparison of the momentum of both sources showed that the initial impact of both the momentum is decreasing, but the initial impact of insurance sources is more. Employment increased initially in response to insurance costs. In response to unemployment insurance costs, employment decreased at first, which quickly returned to its initial state in the second period. The comparison of the effect of two impulses showed that the initial effect and durability of the impulse of insurance expenses is more than that of unemployment insurance expenses. The results of the study showed that the influence of resources and expenses, both from the area of insurance resources and expenses and from the area of unemployment insurance resources and expenses, is different on the economic variables of the study. Increasing social security resources through insurance premiums should be done with high sensitivity so that it does not have adverse effects on growth and employment, especially in the short term. To increase social security resources, attention to unemployment insurance resources can have a much better effect. The coordination of the social security system with the macro-economic policies in the adverse economic conditions can increase the efficiency of this system in the economy.
Ethical considerations: The main goal of the authors of this study is the growth and development of social welfare literature and to inform managers and people who work in this field. The authors of this article have analyzed and investigated the subject of the study by maintaining the trustworthiness and integrity of the data and information. Thank you to all the people, organizations and institutions who have provided their information for research.
Method: This study was conducted based on theoretical foundations and existing literature, as well as using econometric modeling. The econometric model used in this study is structural VAR (SVAR). In VAR models, the values of a variable are fitted to the values with its own interval. VAR models include two or more variables. The structural form of VAR or SVAR is similar to simultaneous equations in which, in addition to past values, current values of variables are also entered in each of the equations. Therefore, in this study, the impact of social security resources and expenses on economic growth and employment has been investigated using the structural vector autocorrelation (SVAR) model. In order to estimate the parameters of the structural form and to identify the vector-structural autocorrelation model, the AB model (Sons and Shin decomposition) has been used.
Findings: With an impulse to insurance resources, the economic growth initially decreases to 0.011 and continues to increase. The increase in insurance resources, which is the result of the increase in insurance premiums, causes a decrease in economic growth and after three years, it reaches the initial state. After three years, the effectiveness of insurance resources will have a positive effect on economic growth. The reaction of economic growth to the impulse of unemployment insurance resources is an increase of 0.015 percent in the beginning, which decreases to 0.003 in the second year and gradually decreases. The comparison of these two impulses on the economic growth shows that the effect of the impulse of unemployment insurance resources is greater and more durable than the insurance resources. Economic growth initially increases by 0.011 in response to the impulse of insurance expenses, and with the passage of time, it will decrease to -0.007 in the second period. In the continuation of the increasing process, this impulse starts and reaches its initial state after six periods. The impulse of unemployment insurance costs also causes an initial increase in economic growth to the extent of 0.005. In the continuation of this process, it decreases and after three periods, it reaches its initial state. In response to insurance resources, employment initially decreases by 0.017 percent, and in the continuation of this increasing reaction, it reaches 0.001 after four periods. From the fourth period onwards, the decreasing trend begins and after ten periods it reaches -0.001. This reaction shows that the increase in social security insurance resources causes a decrease in employment. The response of employment to unemployment insurance resources is also a decrease of 0.002 at the beginning, the downward trend of this variable continues and reaches -0.005 in the second period. In the continuation of the employment in response to unemployment insurance resources, it has an increasing trend and reaches 0.001 in the fourth period. The comparison of the momentum of both sources shows that the initial effect of both impulses is decreasing, but the initial effect of insurance sources is more. The passage of time decreases and after ten periods it reaches its initial state. This reaction shows that the increase in insurance expenses of the social security organization causes an increase in employment. In response to unemployment insurance costs, employment shows an initial decrease of 0.005, which quickly returns to its initial state in the second period. The comparison of the impact of two impulses shows that the response of employment to insurance costs is increasing and to unemployment insurance costs is decreasing. Also, the initial effect and durability of the impulse of insurance expenses is more than unemployment insurance expenses.
Discussion: With an impulse to insurance resources, economic growth decreased at first, while the reaction of economic growth to the impulse of unemployment insurance resources was an increase. The comparison of these two impulses on economic growth showed that the impact of the impulse of unemployment insurance resources is greater. Economic growth increased in response to the impulse of insurance costs and unemployment insurance costs. The comparison of these two impulses showed that the effectiveness of insurance costs is greater than unemployment insurance costs. In response to the insurance resources, employment decreased at first, but continued to increase. The reaction of employment to unemployment insurance sources is also a reduction at first. The comparison of the momentum of both sources showed that the initial impact of both the momentum is decreasing, but the initial impact of insurance sources is more. Employment increased initially in response to insurance costs. In response to unemployment insurance costs, employment decreased at first, which quickly returned to its initial state in the second period. The comparison of the effect of two impulses showed that the initial effect and durability of the impulse of insurance expenses is more than that of unemployment insurance expenses. The results of the study showed that the influence of resources and expenses, both from the area of insurance resources and expenses and from the area of unemployment insurance resources and expenses, is different on the economic variables of the study. Increasing social security resources through insurance premiums should be done with high sensitivity so that it does not have adverse effects on growth and employment, especially in the short term. To increase social security resources, attention to unemployment insurance resources can have a much better effect. The coordination of the social security system with the macro-economic policies in the adverse economic conditions can increase the efficiency of this system in the economy.
Ethical considerations: The main goal of the authors of this study is the growth and development of social welfare literature and to inform managers and people who work in this field. The authors of this article have analyzed and investigated the subject of the study by maintaining the trustworthiness and integrity of the data and information. Thank you to all the people, organizations and institutions who have provided their information for research.
Type of Study: orginal |
Received: 2023/05/13 | Accepted: 2023/10/4 | Published: 2024/02/14
Received: 2023/05/13 | Accepted: 2023/10/4 | Published: 2024/02/14
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