Volume 20, Issue 79 (1-2021)                   refahj 2021, 20(79): 119-152 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Sayehmiri A, nekgoftar L, Askar H, Shayan A. (2021). A Meta-analysis of Population Growth Impact on Economic Growth. refahj. 20(79), 119-152.
URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-3483-en.html
Full-Text [PDF 639 kb]   (2309 Downloads)     |   Abstract (HTML)  (2789 Views)
Full-Text:   (4832 Views)
Extended Abstract
Intorduction: Population growth and its impact on economic development has long been the focus of economic and demographic experts. Population growth has been identified as one of the major and most effective factors in reducing per capita income and, consequently, in lowering living standards and public welfare. Although poor population growth under normal circumstances causes poverty, at the same time, this negative factor can be used as a factor of consumption and, consequently, as a factor of growth of production and demand and economic prosperity. The impact of population growth on the economic development of developing countries is quite different, since the economic conditions in these countries are quite different from those of the underdeveloped countries.
Method: The research method is meta-analysis. Meta-analysis is the use of specific statistical methods to summarize the results of independent studies to find the most accurate form of correlation between the variables studied. The steps of the meta-analysis are: 1. Detailed definition of the research topic and question 2. Preliminary search and selection of articles 3. Scientific validation of the articles and sources 4. Extraction of information 5. Statistical analysis and presentation, and 6. Discussion, interpretation, and results. Meta-analysts are able to calculate the effect size with mean, variance, and standard deviation of the groups, but the most common statistical values in this field are the “r” and “d, wherein “d” is usually used for Use group differences and ‘r’ for correlational studies. Model Stanley and Jerrell (2005) provide an overview of the MRA literature that they have a typical form.
gi=β0+βn n+βz z+ε                                                ( 1 )
Where g is economic growth, n is the size of population growth, β_n is an estimate of the impact of population growth on economic growth, β_0 Width of origin, Z is a set of control variables, and ε is the error. During the research process on the impact of population growth on economic growth out of 143 different papers, theses and reports according to the criteria set, a total of 48 theses and 32 papers with matching topics or relatively high thematic similarity were found to be suitable for meta-analysis. Based on the criteria considered, nine theses and nine articles were found to be suitable to be used in this study, in particular in meta-analysis process to calculate the intensity of the effect entered into the analysis process. It is important to note that the criteria to be considered in the research contract are in the relevant study, population growth was used as an independent variable and economic growth as a dependent variable. In order to perform the calculations of this study, including estimating the effect size of variables extracted from coding form, STATA and CMA software were used.
Findings: The findings of the study show that the accumulation diagram 1 forest  information of each study and its final result and effect size distribution based on confidence interval, which is as follows.
Chart 1 Size distribution of the effect of population growth on economic growth in different studies


The overall result of the paper on the relationship between the growth of the population and the economic growth is that, given the effect size, the relationship is negative and equals -0.38. are. The details are as follows.

Table 1. Relationship between population growth and economic growth
P-value    Confidence interval    r    ES
0.012    0.38- 0.96    -0.49    -0.38

Given the magnitude of the effect of -0.38 on population growth and economic growth, it can be concluded that there is a negative significant relationship between population growth and economic growth and the main hypothesis of this study is confirmed. Based on the results in Table 2 and the effect size of 0.91, it can be said that the age structure of the population has a significant relationship with economic growth.
Table 2. Relationship between age structure of population and economic growth
P-value    Confidence interval    r    ES
0.003    0.30-1.52    0.72    0.91


Table 3 shows the type of model used (self-explanatory model) and panel data method and is significant in explaining the impact of population growth on economic growth due to their size and significance. The type of model used to explain the effect of population growth on economic growth is important.
Table 3. Type of econometric model used
P-value    Confidence interval    r    ES    
0.004    0.35-1.63    0.45    2.27    Self-explanatory pattern
0.025    0.78-2.15    0.33    3.16    Data Panel Method

Reference: research result 
Discussion: According to the effect size table of 2.18 for the cross-sectional data type and the effect size of 1.13 for the combined data type,  and the effect size of 0.40 for the type of data used (time series) it can be said that the type of data used to explain the effect of economic growth is likely to be impressive.
Table 4. Type of data and relationship between population growth and economic growth
Table 4. Skill Composition and Economic Growth
P-value    Confidence interval    r    ES    Data type
0.001    0.335-1.18    0.38    2.18    Cross-sectional data
0.00    0.31-0.50    0.37    0.40    Time series data
0.035    0.63-2.32    0.45    1.13    Combined data

Reference: research result 
According to Table 5, there is a significant effect of 0.63 on population skill composition (skilled and unskilled) and economic growth.
Table5. Skill Composition and Economic Growth
P-value    Confidence interval    r    ES
0.027    0.19-1.14    0.29    0.63

Reference: research result 
A survey of demographic characteristics on their economic growth shows that men have a greater impact on economic growth. According to Fisher Z obtained for effect size, these values are significant at 0.05 significance level in both sexes. The effect of education on male gender is therefore greater than that of female. The impact of education on economic growth Table 6 shows that the magnitude of the effect of higher education is lower than educational levels. 
Table 6. The effect of education on economic growth
Significance level    test z    Upper limit    Lower limit    variance    Standard error    Effect size    model
0.067    21.851    0.053    0.012    0.001    0.031    0.037    illiterate
0.000    3.370    0.068    0.017    0.013    0.115    0.042    Elementary
0.0000    20.662    0.968    0.124    0.001    0.037    0.696    Cycle
0.021    9.631    1.630    1.142    0.016    0.125    1.386    Diploma
0.0000    19.087    3.797    0.665    0.001    0.033    2.731    Associate Degree
0.036    9.642    7.369    2.933    0.012    0.111    4.151    Bachelor
0.015    12.961    11.704    3.582    0.001    0.031    8.643    Master’s degree
0.0000    25.562    25.136    9.752    0.01    0.098    18.944    Doctor
0.003    31.524    30.372    12.571    0.042    0.204    23.971    Post-doctorate

Reference: research result 
Investigating Population Skills Composition on Economic Growth Table 7 shows the impact of more skilled labor on economic growth.
Table 7. Skill Composition
Significance level    Test  z    Upper limit    Lower limit    variance    Standard error    Effect size    model
0.003    21.851    3.362    0.941    0.001    0.045    1.231    skillfully
0.416    3.370    0.974    0.133    0.003    0.321    0.413    No skill

Reference: research result 
According to the Fisher Z obtained for measures of the effect of skill composition separately, it has been shown that the lack of skill does not affect economic growth, so it can be said that the skill required to perform the job has a positive effect on economic growth at 1.231.
Ethical Considerations
Authors’ contributions
All authors contributed in designing, running, and writing all parts of the research.
Funding
The present study did not have any sponsors.
Conflicts of interest
This article does not conflict with other articles.
Type of Study: orginal |
Received: 2019/09/13 | Accepted: 2020/06/23 | Published: 2021/04/3

Send email to the article author


Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2024 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Social Welfare Quarterly

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb