Abstract: (81 Views)
Abstract: Introduction: Since the level of social welfare depends on the level of consumption and the level of income, improving the consumption conditions of households will lead to an increase in the level of social welfare in the whole society. The main goal of this article is to investigate the direction and intensity of the influence of the price of goods and services consumed by families in different income groups, as well as the effect on the average income in each of the income deciles in urban and rural areas of Iran in relation to the exchange rate transition.
Method: In this study, using a simple linear model and using the technique of structural vector autocorrelation (SVAR) model and by analyzing the variance of the cost of consumer goods and services as well as the average income of income groups and using photos The impact of exchange rate shocks (IRF) has been investigated. According to the type of data, which is annual and from 1363 to 1401. An effective lag of one is considered.
Findings: According to the results of Johanson's co-test at the critical level of 5%, the existence of a long-term balanced relationship has been confirmed. The general results have shown that the exchange rate shock, which causes a one percent increase in the exchange rate, will decrease social welfare by 0.72%. In the same study period, the exchange rate had the greatest effect on the costs related to education, health and communication in both urban and rural areas.
Discussion: The increase in the exchange rate and the decrease in the value of the national currency over time have a lot of cost effects on households, this issue causes important expenses such as education and health to be at risk. In the period of communication, the problem of the exchange rate affects the communication costs effectively, which requires a lot of attention from policy makers.
Method: In this study, using a simple linear model and using the technique of structural vector autocorrelation (SVAR) model and by analyzing the variance of the cost of consumer goods and services as well as the average income of income groups and using photos The impact of exchange rate shocks (IRF) has been investigated. According to the type of data, which is annual and from 1363 to 1401. An effective lag of one is considered.
Findings: According to the results of Johanson's co-test at the critical level of 5%, the existence of a long-term balanced relationship has been confirmed. The general results have shown that the exchange rate shock, which causes a one percent increase in the exchange rate, will decrease social welfare by 0.72%. In the same study period, the exchange rate had the greatest effect on the costs related to education, health and communication in both urban and rural areas.
Discussion: The increase in the exchange rate and the decrease in the value of the national currency over time have a lot of cost effects on households, this issue causes important expenses such as education and health to be at risk. In the period of communication, the problem of the exchange rate affects the communication costs effectively, which requires a lot of attention from policy makers.
Article number: 7
Keywords: exchange rate transition, price of goods and services, income groups, structural VAR model
Type of Study: orginal |
Received: 2024/03/3 | Accepted: 2024/11/20
Received: 2024/03/3 | Accepted: 2024/11/20
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Social Welfare Quarterly
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