Abstract: (5773 Views)
Objectives: The phenomena of poverty has been one of the most prominent issues in human cultures and societies from past to present. A lot of factors like economical slump, major unemployment, population changes, and other social- economical factors as well as ordinary methods of procuring individual demands (in the form of general subsidizing without advance provisions) cause the problem of poverty and its consequences persisting. There for identifying the trend of poverty in the last years would be to a great extend helpful in future plans of poverty cleaning. There are different ways of measuring poverty in micro and macro scale. In this study we are going to develop the macro index of poverty by maintaining two main axioms:"economic growth results in poverty decrease" and "inequality income increase results in poverty increase".
Method: Human is the intelligent creature that tries instantly for understanding his nature and environment, but because of his limited power of general reasoning is permanently faced with lack of absoluteness and certainty. There are lots of ambiguous and not precise concepts that we utter them daily through words and expressions. This ambiguity is the other reason for lack of certainty in other words, using this ambiguous language for transferring and description of knowledge. Fuzzy Set Theory has been funded and developed by Professor Zadeh on 1965. Fuzzy sets are divided into "linguistic variables" and "concepts". In this theory the expressions and propositions are presented as "if.... then" clauses. These clauses are called linguistic rules or verbal rules. Applying Fuzzy logic has two main advantages: i) avoiding complex calculations of economic evaluation models, ii) fuzzy rules are easier to understand due to it's terms related to linguistic terms. The important issue in a fuzzy modeling is a general consensus on the meaningfulness of the determining variables of the study. In this study ftrzzy logic and MATLAB software have been used to develop the annual time series trend of poverty (non-visible) in Iran in the period of the years between 1368 and 1383.
Findings: In this study the Gauss function (normal) is used in 5 degrees (from very big to very short) for each variable. In average calculation, in order to take into account the possible cycles in our data, we would involve one of the data of at least 6 years duration in dynamic average. Because we are going to measure the poverty index for the period between 1368 and 1383, in order to calculate the dynamic average we would start from 1363, and for each series and each year we consider the average amount of 6 years of our data as the normal amount. Our calculations revealed that the total poverty trend in Iran was downward and the highest and lowest amount of poverty index has been occurred respectively in the years 1370 and 1382, and we have the relative maximum and minimum respectively in the years 1380 and 1372. The analysis of the poverty trend sensitivity also revealed that poverty trend is not influenced by the income distribution index.
Results: Considering the 10 years cycle of poverty trend in Iran, planning and decision making authorities are able to make change in this trend by their policy tools and define new approaches for poverty reduction. The economic growth in Iran has not a uniform trend but however through the last few years we had a better income distribution, and this resulted in more influence on poverty trend and reduction of poverty index. Iran, by accepting the Millennium development objectives of U.N. in 2000 has been obliged to poverty clean up. This means that the poverty should be reduced by half from 1990 to 2015. Diagrams show that the direct and indirect measurements of the governments has been influential, but considering the necessity of annual 3% reduction and the multiple dimensional nature of poverty, and ineffectuality of short term planning, the necessity of a comprehensive long planning for poverty reduction is felt.
Type of Study:
orginal |
Received: 2015/09/2 | Accepted: 2015/09/2 | Published: 2015/09/2
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